New Jeremy Corbyn party poses 'more of a threat' to Greens than Scottish Labour
EXCLUSIVE: Sir John Curtice said Your Party could take votes off Scotland's most left wing parties.
A polling guru says a new party formed by Jeremy Corbyn could take seats off the Greens at the Holyrood election.
Sir John Curtice said Corbyn is less of a threat to Scottish Labour as Anas Sarwar’s voters are less left-wing.
Corbyn, who led Labour before becoming an independent, is set to launch a new socialist party with fellow MP Zarah Sultana.
Provisionally called ‘Your Party’, it has attracted around 800,000 supporters and a branch in Glasgow is set to launch.
Contesting next year’s Holyrood election would be Corbyn’s first major electoral test.
Curtice told the Record that Scottish data within recent polling showed the new party doing slightly better in Scotland than elsewhere.
With Holyrood polls showing the Greens may add to their seven MSPs, Curtice said Corbyn poses a threat to the environmental party:
“If indeed they [Your Party] are running at 4-5% UK wide, and they are getting 5-6% in Scotland, well that is around the level in which you are likely to start picking up a few representatives.”
“If you look at the data from down south, the party that above all loses out to this hypothetical party are the Greens.”
He said: “If they were to get 5-6% on the List vote, it may well be the Greens that would lose out above all.”
He added: “You cannot dismiss the possibility there might be a handful of Corbyn MSPs, given the nature of the electoral system.”
Although Corbyn led Labour for four years, Curtice said:
“Labour’s vote in Scotland is nothing like as left wing as the Labour vote south of the border. This is one of the reasons why Labour has been losing ground to Reform more heavily north of the border than south of the border.
"A lot of people who voted for Labour are people who voted for the Tories in 2019. Labour picked up many more votes off the Tories in 2024 north of the border than they did south of the border.”
Curtice said the impact of a new left wing party on the SNP vote would depend on Corbyn’s approach to independence.
The veteran left winger made pro-indyref2 noises recently: “I understand the rights and needs of self-determination in Scotland and elsewhere.”
“The Scottish people have a right to decide their own future. Therefore if the Scottish people want a second referendum, that’s fine by me, and I would support that.”
Curtice, Professor of Politics at Strathclyde University, said: “What they say on independence is the big uncertainty.”
He also said of Your Party's ability to professionalise: “Corbyn is known as a campaigner. He is not known for his ability to organise anything.”
“Will they manage to create an organisation? Will they be able to find the money?”
Scottish Greens MSP Patrick Harvie said: “I don’t think it's a shock that so many people in England are looking for a new party that can challenge Labour’s continued lurch to the right, an alternative is needed.
“Fortunately, Scotland has an organised and successful party on the left, the Scottish Greens. We fight to put the needs of people and planet before corporate profits."
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